Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...

With a debate and a second assassination attempt in the rearview mirror, the Harris-Trump contest is by any measure too close ...

With eight weeks to go until election day, the debate will help undecided voters form their opinions on who they'll vote for ...

"what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.

Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidential election forecast model. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the ...

Donald Trump is projected to win more than 300 electoral votes in the 2024 election by flipping a number ... who won 525 out ...

Elon Musk is using his social media platform to promote misinformation about the presidential candidates in the lead up to ...

On Thursday, Aug. 22, Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepted the Democratic Party's nomination to be its 2024 candidate ... 2000-2020 presidential elections, the new 538 forecast is ...

The US presidential election process is complex ... These electors, totaling 538, cast votes on behalf of their states based on the popular vote. Most states use a winner-takes-all system ...

For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ...