You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and ...

Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled ...

That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...

These may not be the best numbers, but they are below average errors, i.e., as I suggested previously, the average error in ...

Still, I asked Zitzewitz what a market can tell me that, say, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average can’t. Essentially, he told ...

Polling from the New York Times and Siena College, FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, Emerson College, Reuters, Ipsos and ...

The former Fox News host called out pollsters following Trump's victory, describing their predictions as a "complete and total failure." ...

Trump appears to have won Wisconsin over Kamala Harris by a single percentage point, compared with a final FiveThirtyEight.com average of a 1-point Harris edge. Trump won Georgia by 2 points, compared ...

Election Day 2024 is here. And eyes are on eight critical "battleground states" that could determine the results: Arizona, ...

The polls weren’t off that much in capturing a near-uniform swing in very close states. But they underestimated the Trump ...

Trump briefly dipped to -145 after the first results came in at 4 p.m. Tuesday. But his odds quickly soared to -225 by 5 p.m.

Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...