The map was created before Election Day 2024 as a prediction of how women might vote.

You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and ...

Donald Trump outperformed expectations for his third straight presidential election, which will surely raise more questions about pollsters’ ability to gauge where elections stand. Trump pulled ...

That's lower than the statistical bias of the polls in 2016 and 2020, which underestimated Trump by 3.2 and 4.1 points, respectively. But it's higher than the bias in the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 ...

Trump not only won in the Electoral College, but he won so big that he expanded his coalition with historic demographic ...

But Trump did not see those declines. He went up in all three regions. 8. The polls underestimated Trump’s support again, but ...

In the days leading up to the US election, pollsters had the race deadlocked. The vote was essentially a coin flip. But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in ...

ABC News is projecting that Trump is expected to win Indiana’s 11 electoral votes. That is not a surprise. In previous ...

Cook Political Report maintains its rating of the race as a tossup, while InsideElections says it tilts Democratic. FiveThirtyEight polling averages present Slotkin as having the largest advantage ...

The polling averages for Nevada couldn’t be closer if they tried. FiveThirtyEight’s average for the state currently has Trump up 0.2% over Harris. The Democrat previously had a lead of 1.2% in ...

Trump also leads Harris, 48.6% to 47.1%, according to FiveThirtyEight's poll average, while a Washington Post poll average shows Trump beating Harris by 2 points. Harris, though, has attempted to ...